Lamar Jackson’s future is increasingly a mystery: Mike Sando’s Pick Six

Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh stepped to the rostrum Sunday night time and saluted his quarterback for preventing via accidents to guide a spirited effort, albeit in defeat, in opposition to the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals.

The quarterback whose toughness Harbaugh saluted prominently in his postgame remarks was Tyler Huntley, not Lamar Jackson, whose unavailability six weeks after struggling a sprained knee has fueled hypothesis about Jackson’s motives within the absence of a contract extension.

As Baltimore’s season ended with a 24-17 wild-card defeat at Cincinnati, the Ravens’ offseason started with NFL insiders questioning how prominently Jackson figures into the workforce’s plans.

The Pick Six column leads with views from across the league on a topic that simmered for weeks earlier than boiling over because it grew to become clear Jackson would miss a sixth consecutive recreation, this one within the postseason, regardless of Harbaugh initially suggesting the quarterback may return a month in the past. Will the Ravens commerce Jackson? What are the options? That and extra on this wild-card version:

• Lamar Jackson’s future is … the place?
• Chargers, Herbert and rookie window
• Bengals’ large play joins historic record
• Under-radar Giants transfer pays off enormous
• Officiating is all the time worse than ever
• Two-minute drill: Allen, Purdy & extra

1. Is Lamar Jackson completed in Baltimore? The scenario feels increasingly fraught.

It’s been a unusual season for quarterbacks, with Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr each leaving their groups after getting benched. The thriller surrounding Jackson stays unresolved, seemingly by design.

The Ravens simply might have shot down the concept that Jackson’s unsettled contract standing is perhaps influencing his availability. Isn’t that what Andy Reid would do if Patrick Mahomes’ motives had been instantly questioned? Wouldn’t any coach do this for a quarterback he needed to guard?

“That is absolutely how things are done, except for if your last name is Harbaugh, right?” an exec from one other workforce stated on the situation of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject. “That is what him and his brother do, and there is one more guy who handles business like that — he wears cutoff-arm sweatshirts with hoodies, and his name is Bill Belichick.”

A decade in the past, Harbaugh reportedly clashed with legendary security Ed Reed over practices that Reed and a few gamers discovered too intense. Any hole between Harbaugh’s expectations for Jackson and Jackson’s expectations might equally fall alongside generational strains.

“Harbaugh is a power coach,” this exec stated. “It’s like it is 1983 and you’re going to get the kid to come back by saying he is an important part of the team and it’s not a serious injury, but that doesn’t work in today’s NFL. He tries to make it coy and tricky, but he wants to exercise power over players, just like the college coaches he comes from and admires.”

The Ravens moved on from Reed after that 2012 season.

Jackson is rather more essential to the Ravens now than Reed was then, however accidents have sidelined him late up to now two seasons, elevating questions on how a lot cash Baltimore ought to assure for the long run.

Jackson is averaging 10.3 rushes and scrambles per begin via 61 profession begins, by far essentially the most for any quarterback via 61 begins since at the least 2000, in accordance with TruMedia. Cam Newton is subsequent at 6.8 per begin to the identical level in his profession, adopted by Michael Vick (6.7), Josh Allen (6.0) and Russell Wilson (5.3). Newton produced an MVP season whereas serving to Carolina to the Super Bowl in his age-26 season, however he by no means reached the Pro Bowl once more and commenced to say no. Jackson turned 26 final week.

“Has he improved as a passer?” an evaluator requested. “Sure, but he is a running quarterback, and how is it different than the running back position? It is different in terms of number of hits, but the hits can be worse for a quarterback to take. I just would not commit to him more than a year or two.”

Jackson reportedly needed a totally assured deal just like the one Deshaun Watson leveraged from Cleveland when Watson might have signed with different groups. Jackson doesn’t possess that form of leverage as a result of Baltimore owns his rights via the franchise tag. But he might make the scenario in Baltimore untenable if he wished, the best way Jalen Ramsey and others have achieved when in search of out.

Is it actually coming to that for Jackson and the Ravens?

“It is hard to get rid of a player who has helped you achieve so much,” one other exec stated. “You can only do that if you have a replacement ready on the roster or if the locker room is like, ‘We are good without this guy.’ They don’t have the replacement lined up, so it’s going to have to be a thing where the locker room says, ‘Eh, it is kind of messed up, what he is doing.’ ”

After the Cincinnati recreation, Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey provided assist for Jackson, suggesting the quarterback was limping across the facility at maybe 50-60 % of full energy, however Harbaugh has conspicuously allowed perceptions to linger when he might have reset the narrative way back.

“Yeah, he is letting Lamar twist in the wind,” this exec stated.

“Nothing but admiration for our guys, very proud of our football team.” pic.twitter.com/ZCSyMbkV44

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) January 16, 2023

“Tyler Huntley, coming in and playing the way he played, coming off the shoulder and the wrist injuries and fighting his way back onto the field and just giving everything he had,” Harbaugh stated after the sport.

Sean Payton predicted on the Fox pregame present Sunday that Jackson had performed his remaining recreation with the Ravens. Vick, seated close to Payton within the Fox studio, prompt Jackson ought to have “put a brace on” his knee and gutted it out. Earlier within the week, Ravens receiver Sammy Watkins prompt Jackson is perhaps enjoying if he had entered into a long-term contract.

“I am not a Lamar apologist, but I don’t think any of us knows what he is going through medically,” the evaluator cautioned. “Everybody is different, and a PCL is a weird ligament, and if there is truly inflammation in there, that is hard to play through.”

An agent thought the approaching offseason could be a horrible one for groups needing quarterbacks. That might enhance the demand for Carr, who is on the buying and selling block. Tom Brady might be obtainable as a short-term repair. Jimmy Garoppolo’s sturdiness shall be a issue groups should weigh. Teams drafting exterior the highest picks can’t rely on that avenue.

“There will definitely be a market for Lamar if the Ravens want to trade him,” an exec with ties to the Ravens stated. “I was thinking maybe Houston. They have a ton of draft capital. Atlanta comes to mind. Lamar going back home to Miami would be amazing if they could find a way.”

It’s all hypothesis at this level, nevertheless it feels much less far-fetched on a regular basis.

“I see a divorce unless their doctors are privately telling them Lamar really can’t play because of the injury, which seems doubtful with the way Harbaugh has handled it,” a longtime exec from one other workforce stated. “I could see a trade next spring if they can get a high enough pick to get a new QB. Lamar appears to have a ceiling that Jalen Hurts poked through this year. Harbaugh is making it seem like they are tired of the situation. They will never give him the Watson-type contract he reportedly covets.”

2. Six quarterbacks have achieved Tier 1 standing whereas on their rookie offers since I started polling coaches an executives yearly for “Quarterback Tiers” in 2014. The Chargers should remorse that Justin Herbert is the one one with out a postseason victory.

Herbert turns into eligible for a new contract this offseason after finishing his third NFL season. The Chargers might wait one other 12 months or transfer to get one thing achieved earlier. If they enter into a new deal this offseason, they’ll have a 12 months or two with smaller salary-cap expenses earlier than the large cap hits make it harder to construct a workforce round him.

Whatever the case, the Chargers’ 31-30 defeat at Jacksonville after blowing a 27-0 lead made Los Angeles the primary workforce since 1999 to lose a recreation whereas committing zero turnovers and forcing at the least 5. Teams had received 101 consecutive video games when the turnover dials had been cranked to these extremes.

The desk under exhibits postseason data for Herbert and the 5 different quarterbacks to attain Tier 1 standing since 2014 earlier than signing second contracts. The different 5 mixed for a 17-10 postseason file with one Super Bowl title whereas nonetheless on their rookie offers.

Herbert’s Chargers are 0-1 after their historic collapse.

3. How large was Sam Hubbard’s 98-yard fumble return for a Cincinnati Bengals landing? Bigger than all however one postseason scrimmage play since at the least 2000.

The Ravens had been on the verge of scoring a landing for a 24-17 lead within the fourth quarter at Cincinnati, or in order that they thought. Hubbard’s lengthy return of a fumble after Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley prolonged the ball towards the objective line, however not throughout it, produced a 12.0-point swing in anticipated factors added (EPA), in accordance with TruMedia. That quantity represents the swing from Baltimore having third-and-goal from the 1, which was price 5.5 EPA in favor of the Ravens, and the very surprising precise results of the play.

NO WORDS.#BALatCIN | 📺 NBC pic.twitter.com/pAFTy1yqpS

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) January 16, 2023

Only James Harrison’s well-known pick-six interception for Pittsburgh off Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner within the Super Bowl following the 2008 season produced a larger postseason swing on a single play. Hubbard’s play felt extra pivotal as a result of it occurred within the fourth quarter.

John Madden calling the James Harrison pick-6 within the Super Bowl in opposition to the Cardinals @jharrison9292 #Steelers pic.twitter.com/0iRiPffkno

— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) December 29, 2021

The high 5 EPA swing performs from scrimmage within the playoffs since 2000 had been memorable ones:

• Harrison: 100-yard pick-six off Warner in Super Bowl XLIII

• Hubbard: 98-yard fumble return for Bengals in opposition to Ravens

• Kam Chancellor, Seattle Seahawks: 90-yard pick-six off Carolina’s Cam Newton within the 2014 divisional spherical

• Champ Bailey, Denver Broncos: 100-yard interception return off Tom Brady in opposition to New England within the 2005 divisional spherical, ending with a fumble out of bounds on the New England 1

• Ronde Barber, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 92-yard pick-six for Tampa Bay off Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb within the 2002 NFC title recreation at Veterans Stadium, launching the Bucs to the Super Bowl

The frantic efforts of defenders to go off catastrophe stood out on a few of these performs, including drama to them: Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald navigating via site visitors whereas making an attempt to chase down Harrison; Baltimore’s Mark Andrews sprinting after Hubbard and diving at his ft; and the Patriots’ Benjamin Watson separating Bailey from the soccer with a large hit on the pylon. It’s that kind of effort that makes the video games so compelling.

4. Isaiah Hodgins logged the twelfth 100-yard receiving recreation in Giants playoff historical past throughout a 31-24 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. His claiming off the waiver wire says loads in regards to the Giants.

Coach Brian Daboll and common supervisor Joe Schoen took over a Giants workforce that had tied the Jets for the NFL’s worst file (22-59) over the earlier 5 seasons, simply forward of Jacksonville (25-56). While the Jaguars loaded up on costly free brokers to revive their program, together with receiver Christian Kirk for $18 million per 12 months, the Giants loved much less roster flexibility. They determined to robust it out in 2022, specializing in establishing a successful tradition.

Claiming Hodgins off the waiver wire after buying and selling sad and unproductive 2021 first-round receiver Kadarius Toney to Kansas City was in keeping with this emphasis. The Giants traded a participant who ceaselessly missed apply and who, after the commerce, tweeted that the hamstring sidelining him for weeks wasn’t actually injured. Toney then deleted the tweet.

For the Giants, the transfer changed into greater than addition by subtraction. It was also addition by addition, as Hodgins outproduced Toney for the remainder of the season, albeit whereas enjoying in an offense affording him a rather more distinguished position, primarily based on the workforce’s restricted choices.

• Toney with KC: 14 receptions, 171 yards, two touchdowns (seven video games)
• Hodgins with NYG: 41 receptions, 456 yards, 5 touchdowns (9 video games)

So far, so good for the Giants. They extracted from the Chiefs third- and sixth-round picks in unloading Toney whereas signaling to their workforce that enjoying time is earned on the apply area.

Hodgins caught eight passes for 105 yards and a landing in opposition to the Vikings. He made a 9-yard catch on third-and-7 throughout a drive to a area objective for a 17-7 lead. His 32-yard reception arrange a landing for a 24-14 lead. His 19-yard seize on second-and-10 sustained a landing drive for the ultimate rating in a 31-24 victory. Hodgins additionally made three receptions on second-and-long that arrange manageable third-down conditions.

The desk under exhibits Hodgins’ 105-yard day rating twelfth on the Giants’ all-time record for postseason video games. Bob Schnelker holds the file with 175 yards for the Giants in opposition to Baltimore within the 1959 playoffs. He later went on to name performs for 9 500-yard video games with Detroit, Green Bay and Minnesota.

5. Officiating is all the time worse than it’s ever been, in accordance with whoever feels aggrieved at any specific time.

You know officiating frustration has reached elevated ranges when ESPN’s high information breaker, Adam Schefter, is writing bylined stories on the matter. Is officiating actually dangerous and getting worse?

Officials’ expertise ranges might be one distinction now in comparison with the previous. The 5 referees within the wild-card video games Saturday and Sunday averaged 5.6 seasons as referees. The 4 officers who labored wild-card weekend a decade in the past in 2012 averaged 9.3 seasons within the position, by comparability. The league has turned over skilled officers in current seasons.

“It takes four years to become truly competent, based on the complicated nature of the rulebook and the way they keep tweaking replay,” stated an NFL workforce exec with information of officiating. “You put these fifth-year guys in there and you are rolling the dice.”

A couple of years in the past, I went again via previous newspaper clippings to compile tales with coaches and workforce officers complaining that officiating had by no means been worse than it was at that very second. There had been dozens of tales over the many years, 12 months after 12 months after 12 months.

In 1975, then-Vikings coach Bud Grant known as the league “a multi-million-dollar operation being handled by amateurs” from an officiating standpoint. Also that 12 months, late Buffalo Bills proprietor Ralph Wilson known as for a head linesman to be fired for ruling a play had been whistled useless earlier than a fumble. Carroll Rosenbloom, then proprietor of the Rams, stated he’d pay half of any fantastic levied in opposition to Wilson by the league, as a result of officiating was so extremely horrible.

“I know the feeling,” Rosenbloom stated on the time. “I have lost two major playoff games because of bad officiating. I suffered in silence and wound up with a coronary. Wilson will, too, if he doesn’t say something.”

Rosenbloom truly did undergo a coronary heart assault after the controversial name, which can or could not have been a issue.

A decade later, the venerable sportswriter Dick Young stated officiating within the NFL was the worst he had ever seen it. Young was born in 1917, three years earlier than Ralph Hay, proprietor of the Canton Bulldogs, summoned 10 different workforce house owners into his Canton automotive dealership to discovered what grew to become the NFL.

“Officiating gaffes more noticeable this year,” an Associated Press headline learn in 2012, a quarter century after Young’s passing.

Now, in 2022, officiating is allegedly even worse than that, although nobody can quantify how good or dangerous officiating truly is, or ever was, or shall be within the future. We simply know anybody watching any recreation, in any sport, at any degree, thinks the officiating must be higher.

6. Two-minute drill: An unbelievable Josh Allen stat and a few perspective for the red-hot Purdy

Did Bruce Arians sneak into the Buffalo Bills’ teaching sales space and wrest the headset away from offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey? It positive appeared that manner as quarterback Josh Allen fired away downfield in Buffalo’s way-closer-than-it-should-have-been victory in opposition to the undermanned Miami Dolphins.

Allen averaged 15.6 air yards per try on 39 makes an attempt, which means the ball traveled that far previous the road of scrimmage to its goal on common. The 15.6 determine ranks first amongst 2,372 participant video games since 2007 when a quarterback tried at the least 39 passes. It is practically double the 8.2 common for these 2,372 qualifying video games.

It was a part of a wild experience via the wild-card spherical for the Bills, who may must commerce a few of that volatility for consistency in opposition to the Bengals within the divisional spherical. …

Have a day, rook! Not dangerous to your first #NFLPlayoffs begin. #FTTB #SEAvsSF pic.twitter.com/uB3PRkF353

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 15, 2023

Brock Purdy accomplished 18 of 30 passes for 332 yards and three touchdowns within the San Francisco 49ers’ 41-23 victory in opposition to the Seattle Seahawks. The glittering stat line included the very best EPA per cross play for any quarterback in wild-card weekend up to now. The 49ers seem like working largely the identical offense they ran when veteran Jimmy Garoppolo was wholesome, a testomony to how shortly Purdy has come alongside as a rookie.

The 49ers are actually averaging 34.8 offensive factors per recreation whereas going 6-0 with Purdy within the lineup. Coach Kyle Shanahan appears to be scheming up wide-open receivers at his normal charge, whereas Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey & Co. break tackles and keep away from defenders while racking up yards after catch.

What’s to not like about Purdy? Purdy’s inexperience working the two-minute offense is one space to observe if the 49ers get into high-pressure conditions in opposition to high defenses. Solving the blitzes and coverages that may be troublesome to deal with in third-and-longer conditions is one other.

“What did you think that 2-minute looked like before half?” a defensive coach whose workforce confronted the 49ers earlier within the season stated, referencing the sport in opposition to Seattle. “In drop-back pass, he is scrambling for his life, he is running to the border of the field three times in the same drive, throwing the ball out of bounds, getting hit. Kyle is the one beating guys by 20 in the playoffs with that offense and a top-three defense.”

San Francisco ought to stay unstoppable on offense so long as Shanahan can maintain issues on schedule.

“Purdy has done well, but it is amazing how people are trying to anoint him,” an evaluator stated. “I don’t want to take anything away, but he has led the NFL in wide-open receivers. And time to throw. These guys are wide open. When they are not, George Kittle catches the ball on third down and wills his way to a first down. It is the absolute perfect setting and every quarterback would dream to be in it. Give the kid credit, but let’s not anoint him.” …

People I do know who’ve labored for the Chargers in teaching and personnel suppose the workforce will retain coach Brandon Staley even after blowing a 27-0 lead in falling 31-30 to the Jaguars. They contend possession shall be reluctant to eat Staley’s remaining wage, whereas noting it might be impractical for any entrance workplace to rent a fourth head coach (common supervisor Tom Telesco has helped rent three already in Staley, Anthony Lynn and Mike McCoy).

The concept that the Chargers may pay high greenback for Sean Payton whereas parting with draft capital for him and ceding management of personnel to him would additionally mark a enormous departure from earlier type for the group, which is why it appears unlikely.

“I’m sure Sean Payton would love to have Justin Herbert as his quarterback,” an exec from one other workforce stated, “but I don’t think he actually wants to deal with the ownership there and the spending issues they have had over the years. All that comes with that organization.”

(Top illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photograph: Mark Alberti / Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Images)